Have we all declared our intentions?

Jonathan, Babangida, Atiku, Ribadu and Saraki have all now formally declared their intention to run- who is next?

One name that the rumour mill churned out on Sunday was that of Aliyu Gusau, who resigned his position as head of Nigerian Intelligence Agency on the Monday. Though he has not declared formally as yet, rumours have it, this powerful yet publicity shy man may either run or support a single Northern candidate that may yet emerge from the pack. Gusau alongside Atiku and IBB all went through the Primaries in the last election but failed to get the ticket or election.
Time will tell as to how the PDP primaries fair. There are games afoot yet.

Saraki who formally declared Monday did so without the fanfare of Goodluck or IBB. The incumbent Kwara state Governor said " We are about to create a generational change. After 50 years of Independence, we are about to start another 50 years." He went on to state that he was the man to deliver on this change.
Though commentators are questioning the mans real intentions and chances, he is the current head of the Nigerian Governors Forum and as such may have some persuasion over those that may deliver the Presidency in 2011. (After all Nigeria for all its claims still has a rudimentary democracy in place, often controlled by those directly in power)
Finally Nihu Ribadu the darling of the intelligensia and diasporan Nigeria declared his intention to run under ACN. And will formalise his campaign in the coming weeks and months. The former EFCC head returned from self imposed Exile a couple of months ago after clearing his name and has been on the cards to run under an anti corruption banner ever since.
The one problem I foresee in this strategy is his funding; To run for President in this country as in all countries costs money, but it also costs you in allegiance. Political Godfatherism is rife and often the Godfathers are not altogether 'clean'. Ribadu must ensure his are whiter than white in order to maintain his strategy.
The race is warming up in other areas with suggestions that Goodlucks speech or part of it was plagiarised from Atikus in 2006. Next carries a story on this and refers to a similair event that unfolded in the US campaign last year.
Atikus campaign manager played down interest but it must have been a smug feeling to be told the major player in the race 'borrowed' the odd paragraph from an old speech.
It is a minor blow to the Goodluck camp in what had been billed both here on this blog and elsewhere as an impressive speech.

The support that Goodluck received at his declaration was initially impressive but questions remain as to the loyalty of the Governors. With the PDP primaries for them occurring before that of the Presidency, there are thoughts that once each has secured their position, the professed loyalty may change...

Goodluck by name; will it be by nature?

Those who understand Nigerian politics can see beyond the circus for the politiking that is going on. After all, it is pretty much certain that the results of the PDP primaries due towards the end of October, will give the country their president.

This week Nigeria came a step closer to knowing who will rule them for four years.
In a week that has seen the 'old guard' represented by Babangida declare it was now time for Goodluck. The man seemingly born with it on his side.

After 4 hours of standard PDP jamboree filled with musical dedication, medium to long speeches from the 'big boys' of nigerian politics in support of GEJ slogans a plenty from "we no want badluck O, we want Goodluck O" to "goodluck for you, Goodluck for me, Goodluck for Nigeria" and a flourish of short crowd rousing speeches by PDP governors (not all of whom were fully supportive of GEJ: for the uninitiated you can tell by the hats, though in reality there was outright support from the Delta region; Goodlucks area, cautious support from the North and some that wanted to sound a note that even after the primaries they would need tending to) from all areas of Nigeria it came to GEJ himself.

His speech sounded more like a campaign speech than just a declaration and re-reading it now it is obvious that some good writers have tailoured it to represent his strategy moving forward. Commentators have suggested it is different to that which has gone before and not since the speeches at immediately post independence has a man delivered such a robust case for transformation.

And it has to be said that people are yearning for change here in Nigeria.

The hope they have in this country is something that is relied on heavily: hope for something better, hope for a noticeable change in their lifestyle and hope for something different. While politicians worldwide play on hope and often use rhetoric to enforce it, nowhere else I have seen, has hope been so ingrained in people that any change is welcome. A faith that "e go betta" is strong yet time and time again there is bitter disappointment..
Any single improvement of quality of life will engender a warmth in the people. And from todays carnival some would say circus it was a message that hope will turn to reality.
I hope that Nigerians can discard their hope for something more solid...with PDP primaries running till end of October, and INEC registration in November time will tell..

elections...online...A new form of campaigning for Nigeria

Lagos incumbent Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola or BRF has packaged a smooth modern campaign team for the upcoming elections in January. While the last four years have seen a number of improvements and developments in infrastructure it is the modern packaging of this politician that is of interest.

While other aspirants to the position of Governor in the state remain cowed and quiet, BRF is continuing to take the limelight in what is truly a one horse race. As we have seen with politicians in the West social media is increasingly playing a part in the campaign.

The President of Nigeria is making much of his Facebook page and unusually declared his intention to run through this platform. Within a couple of hours the declaration had garnered over 1,000 comments, all of which were supportive.

Many potential candidates for the Presidency have websites dedicated to their campaigns in support or against including the famed and sometimes feared former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. A point of note here is that all three candidates are from the dominant party the PDP. Other parties are yet to move their heads above the parapet in relation to the Presidential race.

But it is BRF who is currently stealing the show with his twitter account. Posts are regular, replies are given promptly and suggestions are more than welcome.

This is something unusual for Nigeria and perhaps a sea change for customer service especially by public servants. While it is more than obvious it is not Fashola himself who is responding to tweets his team are dedicated in their work and encourage the people of Lagos to take part in what amounts to a large consultation exercise.

A simple test by myself sending encouragement alongside a complaint garnered a response alongside a telephone number and name of someone to contact. Believe me when I say this but for Nigeria a country that is grappling with technology and its uses this is impressive. The phone number even worked and a solution to the problem has been given.

The grasp of social media within the forthcoming elections is impressive.

The big players have recognised that the youth of Nigeria (the largest demographic) are key to their power and all attempts are being made to reach them.

SMS is being used by most aspirants be they senatorial or presidential aspirant and with over 60 million subscribers to GSM it is an obvious platform to use.

There is a plethora of companies offering bulk SMS services and nearly everyone seems to be acting as an agent for them. After all the election season is big, big business with some terming it the "money season'.

While taking a rest in the UK recently a friend sent me a mail to encourage me to return quickly to Nigeria. His reason: 'Elections are coming; we need to hunt contracts'. Needless to say he wasn't happy when I arrived a month later.

What is clear is that this 'business' will not slow down until January when 'Inshallah' a new President will be in place or 'God willing' the old one returned to office.

Time will tell...